June 5, 2009

ADB predicts worse than expected economic decline, Vanuatu benefits from Fiji’s loss

Filed under: General — fijiuncensored @ 20:50
Tags: , , ,


THE Asian Development Bank says Fiji is likely to experience a worse than expected decline in economic growth.

Speaking on ABC radio this week, ADB’s Pacific economist Craig Sugden said there was always the knowledge that Fiji would face problems, especially with floods earlier this year, but they did not understand how severe these would be.

“[The contraction] are a bit bigger than we had expected. In addition, the political developments in March are a negative, in that they seem to [have] deferred some tourists. So overall, we’re expecting a significant contraction,” Sugden said.

“The latest official projection is a contraction and -0.3 per cent. We’re looking at a noticeably larger contraction.”

Sugden said Fiji’s loss in tourism was Vanuatu’s gain. “Vanuatu had developed a good economic management last year, built around tourism and real state development. And we expected that to continue into this year, albeit at a slightly lower rate.

“But what has happened has been the problems in Fiji Islands appear to be a positive for Vanuatu, so tourists instead of going to Fiji are going to Vanuatu and we’re now seeing quite a marked increased in tourism numbers, which will keep the economy going much faster than we originally expected.” – fiji uncensored



  1. Maybe that is why the ni-Vans supported Frank at the ACP Ministers meeting. They are doing so well out of our crisis that they just wanted Frank to continue doing the same thing. Good luck to them, I suppose. Didn’t cost them anything since Frank’s plea went down like a lead balloon in Brussels.

    Interesting that there was really no fanfare or anything about the EU situation once Frank got back. Deafening silence, really. The recent parade of Chinese businessmen doesn’t fool anyone either. What will they be investing in? Fiji’s shrinking and over-serviced local markets? Regional markets opened to Forum trade agreements that Fiji is now suspended from? Even if they did come, they would only make a difference if they were ADDITIONAL investors. But it would take hundreds if not thousands of them to make up for the lost GDP from the imminent and now unavoidable collapse of Sugar. A handful of smart suits is precious little in the face of that disaster. When will these guys wake up and smell the coffee?

    Comment by Jean d'Ark — June 6, 2009 @ 11:47 | Reply

  2. Green tea seems to be the best option, forget the coffee.

    Comment by Dau — June 6, 2009 @ 18:59 | Reply

  3. ADB guys like Craig are arm chair critics who have little or no country experiences and are full of guess it crap. Never met any economists who could agree on any thing especially economic theory or performance.

    Comment by Horrie — June 7, 2009 @ 19:55 | Reply

  4. Yeah – except that the ADB budgets, approves, and sometimes disburses, its loan funding based on the advice of ITS economists. So this guy’s opinion at least matters in one place where it counts.

    I was also interested to note that Khaiyum did not list his tarnished and under-manned judiciary as one of Fiji’s selling points to potential Chinese “investors”!

    He only mentioned the educated workforce (Cabinet not included here) and tax exemptions – neither of which required any coup to implement them, incidentally. Anyway, there’s another silence/omission that speaks volumes!

    Comment by Jean d'Ark — June 8, 2009 @ 15:47 | Reply

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